Satellite-based spatiotemporal analysis of vegetation and climate controls on wildebeest migration in the Serengeti ecosystem
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58524/jgsa.v2i2.123Keywords:
NDVI, Satellite remote sensing, Serengeti ecosystem, Spatiotemporal analysis , Wildebeest migrationAbstract
The Serengeti ecosystem supports one of the world’s most iconic large-mammal migrations, yet the relative influence of climate and vegetation dynamics on wildebeest movement remains incompletely quantified. This study used open-source satellite and climate datasets in Google Earth Engine, combined with GIS-based spatial analysis, to examine seasonal relationships among vegetation greenness, precipitation, and temperature across the Serengeti ecosystem and selected migratory zones. Vegetation condition was represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Sentinel-2 imagery, while temperature and precipitation were obtained from the ERA5-Land monthly dataset. Monthly zonal statistics were computed for the ecosystem and key migration zones corresponding to March, June, and October. Correlation and multiple regression analyses were then applied to assess the combined influence of climate variables on vegetation dynamics. Results showed a clear seasonal pattern in which NDVI closely tracked rainfall variability, with high vegetation greenness during wet months, a marked decline during the dry season, and recovery after the onset of the short rains. Regression analysis indicated that one-month lagged precipitation, and temperature together explained a substantial proportion of NDVI variation (R^2=0.70), confirming that vegetation response to rainfall is delayed rather than immediate. The findings reinforce the view that wildebeest migration is shaped primarily by rainfall-driven vegetation dynamics, while temperature acts indirectly through its influence on moisture balance and forage persistence. This study demonstrates the value of integrating remote sensing, GIS, and statistical analysis to understand the environmental drivers of wildebeest movement, while offering broader insight into migration ecology and conservation monitoring.
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