Comparative study of prediction models Kanno and Youngs ground shakes during earthquake intraslab north Sumatra, Indonesia

Jakariya; Angga Wijaya; Russell Ong; Lailatul Husna Lubis

doi:10.58524/cesl/v1i2.128

Authors

Jakariya Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara Author
Angga Wijaya Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) Author
Russell Ong Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara Translator
Lailatul Husna Lubis Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.58524/cesl/v1i2.128

Keywords:

Ground-motion prediction equation, Intraslab earthquake, Normalized residual, North Sumatra, Peak ground acceleration

Abstract

North Sumatra is characterized by active subduction-related seismicity, including intermediate-depth earthquakes occurring within the subducting slab. Reliable ground-motion models are therefore needed to support regional seismic-hazard assessment. This study evaluates the relative performance of the ground-motion prediction equations in estimating peak ground acceleration generated by intraslab earthquakes in North Sumatra. Earthquake and observed ground-motion data were obtained from the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics for the 2017–2023 period, consisting of 1,267 earthquake events recorded at 28 seismic stations. Predicted and observed peak ground accelerations were compared using normalized residual analysis, and residual trends were examined with respect to earthquake magnitude. The Kanno et al. model produced median and mean normalized residuals of −2.6357 and −2.8383, respectively, whereas the Youngs et al. model produced corresponding values of −3.0276 and −3.0457. These results indicate that the Kanno model provides predictions that are relatively closer to the observations than those of the Young's model. Nevertheless, the consistently negative and relatively large residuals indicate that both models exhibit systematic model–data discrepancy when applied to the evaluated dataset. Consequently, the Kanno model should be regarded as the better-performing of the two evaluated models rather than as a fully validated regional model. Further analysis incorporating source-to-site distance, focal depth, site conditions, and additional contemporary subduction-zone models is required before either model can be recommended for seismic-hazard applications in North Sumatra.

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